Buying a House in the Netherlands as an Expat: What the 2026 Market Actually Looks Like
If you are considering buying a house in the Netherlands as an international buyer, the mid-2026 market is genuinely different from what you may have read about during the frenzied 2021–2022 peak — or even from what conditions looked like eighteen months ago. The one-sentence answer: the market is more buyer-friendly than it has been in years, but it is not cheap, and the rules governing what expats can borrow have never been more specific. In our experience processing expat mortgage applications through Q1 and Q2 2026, we have seen a noticeable uptick in clients who were priced out in 2024 now re-entering the market — and with good reason.
This article unpacks the five dimensions that matter most: current prices and supply dynamics, the rent-versus-buy calculation, what you can actually borrow as a non-resident, the transfer tax rules, and where prices are heading. Every data point is sourced and dated. Rates and thresholds change — always confirm the latest figures directly with your mortgage adviser or the relevant authority.
The Dutch Housing Market in Mid-2026: More Supply, Slower Price Growth
The headline figure for house prices in the Netherlands is approximately €485,000 as the national median in June 2026, according to CBS and Kadaster purchase price data. Year-on-year growth measured 4.98% in March 2026 — a meaningful deceleration from the 8.57% recorded across full-year 2025. Growth is still positive, but the torrid pace has eased.
Several structural shifts are driving that moderation. Supply has risen sharply: new-build completions reached roughly 18,200 homes — the highest level since 2016 — though sales of new builds remain sluggish, with only about 5,600 new builds sold in Q1 2026. That gap creates genuine negotiating room for buyers willing to consider new construction, which typically carries an 8–15% price premium over comparable existing stock but also stronger energy credentials.
Meanwhile, the rental-to-sales pipeline continues to add inventory. Since 2023, more than 200,000 rental properties have entered the resale market as landlords exit amid tighter regulation. Jasper de Groot, CEO of Pararius, noted in 2026: “The sell-off is slowing, but remains structural. Before 2023, the share of divested rental homes was consistently around 2.5%. The current level is still more than double that.” For buyers, this means more choice — particularly of well-located apartments that were previously locked in the private rental sector.
Despite the improved balance, the market is not slow. The NVM (Dutch Association of Real Estate Agents) confirmed in its Q1 2026 report that homes are selling in 28–32 days on average, and buyers are still paying roughly 3.7% above the asking price nationally. Bidding wars remain most intense for apartments under €400,000 in major cities. Regionally, Utrecht leads forecasts with expected growth above 7% in 2026 (ABN AMRO / Rabobank, 2026), while provinces such as Groningen and Drenthe offer better value and strong relative growth potential for buyers priced out of the Randstad.
Renting or Buying a Home in the Netherlands: How the 2026 Numbers Stack Up
Renting or buying a home in the Netherlands is the defining financial question for most newly arrived expats — and in 2026, the numbers have shifted meaningfully in favour of buying for those with a medium-to-long horizon. For a full step-by-step walkthrough of the purchase process itself, see our guide on buying a house in the Netherlands as an expat. Here we focus on the comparative financial logic.
On the rental side, the Pararius data for Q1 2026 shows the nationwide average asking rent for private-sector housing at €21.12 per square metre, with apartments averaging €22.40/m². Permitted annual rent increases in the mid-market sector reach up to 6.1% in 2026. For a 70 m² Amsterdam apartment, that translates to roughly €1,570/month in rent — with no equity accumulation and annual uplift built in contractually.
On the ownership side, all four major forecasters (ABN AMRO +3%, ING +4%, Rabobank +5%, DNB +4%) expect prices to appreciate in 2026, slower than 2025 but still meaningful. Buying at today’s prices locks in current mortgage rates before any upward movement and builds equity in an asset class that has risen roughly 13.5% above its 2022 peak nationally (CBS, 2026).
The critical caveat is the time horizon. Transaction costs — transfer tax, notary fees, mortgage adviser fees, and valuation — typically add up to 3–5% of the purchase price. Experts consistently advise planning to hold for a minimum of 5–7 years to absorb those costs and smooth out short-term volatility. For expats on temporary contracts, lender policies vary considerably; our article on Dutch mortgage temporary contract rules covers what lenders actually require. For those planning a multi-year stay, the 2026 data makes a compelling case for buying property in the Netherlands as a foreigner rather than continuing to rent.
What Expats Can Actually Borrow: Mortgage Rules That Changed in 2026
The expat mortgage Netherlands landscape has three 2026-specific changes every international buyer needs to understand before entering the market.
1. The National Mortgage Guarantee (NHG) threshold rose to €470,000. Up from €450,000 in 2025, this shift means approximately 20,000 more buyers now qualify for the national mortgage guarantee Netherlands. The one-off NHG fee remains 0.4% of the mortgage amount, but the benefit — a rate discount of 0.3–0.5% compared to non-NHG products — typically outweighs the fee within two to three years. For energy-efficient homes with an A+++ label, the additional borrowing buffer under NHG decreased from €30,000 to €25,000 in 2026. Buyers targeting new builds should factor this into their borrowing calculations. You can read more about how NHG works at the official NHG website.
2. Loan-to-value rules differ sharply for residents versus non-residents. Dutch residents can borrow up to 100% of the property value — no deposit is required, which is unusual by European standards. However, non-residents face a 90% LTV cap, meaning a 10% deposit is mandatory. On a €450,000 home, that is €45,000 in cash before transaction costs. This is arguably the most important expat distinction and one that surprises many buyers who assume the Dutch system’s generosity applies to them equally.
3. Wage growth boosts borrowing capacity significantly. With wages expected to rise 4.1% on average in 2026, a household with a joint gross income of €100,000 can borrow approximately €15,500 more in 2026 than they could previously. That shifts the affordability picture considerably for dual-income expat households.
On mortgage rates: according to DNB data from March 2026, the 10-year fixed rate sits in the 3.11–4.3% range depending on individual qualifications, with variable mortgages at 3.60–4.05%. NHG-backed products typically sit at the lower end of those ranges. The mortgage interest deduction (HRA) allows a maximum deduction rate of 37.56% for incomes between €38,883 and €79,137 in 2026. To model what these rates mean for your specific income and situation, our expat mortgage calculator guide walks through the calculation step by step. Always verify current rates with lenders at the time of application, as they move with bond markets.
Transfer Tax and First-Time Buyer Rules Expats Must Know
Transfer tax in the Netherlands is one of the largest upfront costs — and one of the most misunderstood by international buyers. The rules changed again in 2026, and the details matter.
First-time buyers under the age of 35 benefit from a full transfer tax exemption if the purchase price falls below €555,000 (raised in 2026 from the previous threshold). To qualify, buyers must not have previously owned a home in the Netherlands and must intend to use the property as their primary residence. Confirm the current threshold with the Dutch Tax Authority (Belastingdienst) at the time of purchase, as these thresholds are set annually.
For owner-occupiers who do not qualify for the first-time buyer exemption — whether because they are over 35, have previously owned property, or are purchasing above the threshold — the standard rate is 2%. On a €500,000 property, that is €10,000 in transfer tax alone.
For investment property purchases (second homes, buy-to-let), the rate dropped from 10.4% to 8% in 2026. This is relevant for expats considering a second property or those whose residency status means the property cannot be classified as a primary residence. Our dedicated guide on the transfer tax Netherlands starter exemption covers eligibility conditions in detail.
As a practical budgeting rule, international buyers should plan for purchase price plus 5–6% in total buyer costs, covering transfer tax (if applicable), notary fees, mortgage adviser fees, and valuation. For an Amsterdam home at €550,000 where first-time buyer exemption does not apply, that means budgeting at least €27,500–€33,000 in costs on top of any deposit requirement.
Where Are Prices Headed — And Should You Buy Now or Wait?
The bank consensus for full-year 2026 is remarkably consistent: ABN AMRO forecasts +3%, ING forecasts +4% with an expected 233,000 transactions, Rabobank forecasts +5%, and DNB aligns at +4%. Slower than 2025’s 8.57%, but still appreciating. Waiting for a price correction has historically not worked in the Dutch market — more supply has not yet meaningfully cooled prices, and structural housing shortages persist across most provinces.
NVM chair Lana Goutsmits-Gerssen summarised the position clearly in 2026: “This market gives buyers more breathing room, but it does not mean that the housing market is suddenly relaxed. Affordability remains under pressure, and there is still a shortage in many regions.” That framing captures mid-2026 well: better than 2024, not a buyer’s paradise.
For expats specifically, 2026 offers a set of conditions that have not aligned this favourably since before the pandemic. More inventory, less aggressive overbidding (down to 3.7% nationally from peaks above 10%), rising borrowing capacity due to wage growth, and an NHG threshold that now covers a wider range of properties — these factors combine to make the entry calculation more attractive than it was twelve to eighteen months ago.
Moreover, waiting carries its own costs. Rents are rising at up to 6.1% per year in the mid-market sector. Every month of renting is a month of building someone else’s equity while your own borrowing capacity may drift upward with wage growth but your deposit loses ground against appreciating prices. For expats planning to stay in the Netherlands for five or more years, the arithmetic in 2026 generally favours buying — provided the property, the financing, and the timing are right for your individual situation.
At Expat Mortgage Platform, we specialise in exactly this calculation. We work with buyers navigating non-standard income situations, temporary contracts, and cross-border complexity every day. If you want a personalised assessment of what you can borrow and what a purchase would actually cost you in 2026, start with us — we will give you a clear picture before you make any commitments. Or you can calculate your maximum mortgage.
