Is Now a Good Time to Buy a House in the Netherlands as an Expat?
Every week, clients ask us some version of the same question: is it the right moment to buy a house in the Netherlands, or should they wait? It is a completely reasonable thing to ask. When you decide to buy a house in the Netherlands as an expat, you are navigating a market where prices sit well above 2022 levels, mortgage rates have moved sharply, and competition for good homes remains real. The honest, one-sentence answer: for expats planning to stay five or more years with stable income, the medium-term case for buying remains solid — but the numbers have to work for your specific situation. The rest of this article explains exactly why, and what to check before you commit.
What the Dutch Housing Market Looks Like Right Now
The Netherlands housing market in 2026 is best described as competitive but measurably calmer than the frenzy of 2021–2022. According to Statistics Netherlands (CBS) and the Kadaster Land Registry, the average home reached €486,101 in April 2026, representing a 4.3% year-on-year increase — a clear deceleration from the 8.57% full-year growth recorded in 2025.
Transaction volumes tell an equally important story. Almost 56,000 existing homes changed hands in Q1 2026 — up 8.7% year-on-year — bringing the total including new-builds to 61,075 properties worth over €30 billion. Buyer demand, in other words, is robust rather than retreating.
On the supply side, the picture remains structurally challenging. Only 13,711 newly built homes were completed in Q1 2026, down 11.6% year-on-year, against a Ministry of Housing and Spatial Planning estimate of a 396,000-unit structural shortage (2025 figure). House prices are now 15.8% above their 2022 nominal peak — though in real, inflation-adjusted terms, they are roughly back to that level, which matters when you are comparing the Dutch market to what you may have left behind.
The competitive pressure also shows up clearly in speed and overbidding. According to the NVM Q1 2026 market report, homes are selling in just 28–32 days on average, with a national overbidding rate of approximately 3.7% above asking price.
Where House Prices in the Netherlands Are Headed: Bank Forecasts
All three major Dutch banks agree that house prices in the Netherlands will keep rising through 2026, just at a slower pace than last year. Specifically:
- ABN AMRO projects +3% for 2026, followed by +4% in 2027.
- ING forecasts approximately +4% in 2026.
- Rabobank is the most bullish, projecting +4.8% in 2026 and +5.5% in 2027.
- De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) aligns with ING at +4% for 2026.
The realistic 12-month range for national prices is roughly 0%–5% growth. A meaningful price decline is considered low-to-medium probability given the structural supply constraints described above. Moreover, the temporary wave of investors selling over 200,000 rental properties in 2025 — which added short-term supply relief and helped moderate growth — is now stabilising, removing one of the few moderating forces on prices.
Regionally, Groningen leads at approximately 7% year-on-year growth, driven by university expansion and improved transport links. Flevoland offers compelling commuter-belt value for buyers priced out of Amsterdam. The Amsterdam median sits at €594,000, with premium neighbourhoods like Jordaan and De Pijp commanding €9,000–12,500 per square metre. For a deeper look at Amsterdam-specific neighbourhood data and price trends, see our Amsterdam house prices guide.
TNG Real Estate summarised the shift well in their 2026 commentary: “2026 marks a turning point in the Dutch housing market. Whereas last year we were still talking about extreme overheating, we are now seeing a shift. The market is cooling slightly, but the shortage remains.”
Mortgage Rates in Mid-2026: What Expats Are Actually Paying
According to DNB data from March 2026, the average 10-year fixed mortgage rate rose sharply from around 3.6% to approximately 4.1% — one of the fastest moves in a decade. This shift was driven by capital market expectations around inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, not ECB rate action; the ECB deposit rate is currently held at 2% and is expected to remain stable through 2026.
For variable-rate products, rates currently sit at 3.60%–4.05%. Fixed-rate products range from 3.51% to 4.79% depending on the fixed period and loan-to-value ratio (January 2026 data). Rates are in flux — we strongly advise monitoring them closely before locking in, and speaking with a specialist advisor about your specific timing options.
One critical lever many expats overlook is the NHG (Nationale Hypotheek Garantie). The NHG threshold rose to €470,000 in 2026 (€498,200 for energy-efficient homes), meaning approximately 20,000 more buyers now qualify for NHG benefits than in 2025. NHG typically delivers a rate saving of 0.3–0.5% compared to non-NHG products. Expats with permanent Dutch employment contracts generally qualify — and that saving compounds meaningfully over a 10- or 20-year term. If you want to understand how NHG interacts with your specific expat profile, our guide on the best mortgage for expats in the Netherlands covers this in detail.
The Real Upfront Costs When You Buy a House in the Netherlands
Under Dutch mortgage regulations, residents can borrow up to 100% of a property’s value. Non-residents are typically capped at 90% LTV, meaning a 10% deposit may be required before costs even enter the picture. This is one of the most important practical distinctions for expats who have not yet established permanent Dutch residency.
Those buying costs are substantial. For non-first-time buyers, the typical breakdown includes:
- Transfer tax (overdrachtsbelasting): 2% of the purchase price for a primary residence
- Notary fees: typically €1,500–€2,500
- Mortgage advisor fees: typically €2,000–€3,500
- Valuation report: approximately €400–€700
- Structural survey: optional but recommended, €300–€600
In total, these additional costs typically add up to 4–6% of the purchase price. On a €486,000 home, that means having roughly €20,000–€30,000 in savings available beyond your mortgage. A practical rule of thumb: budget for purchase price × 1.05 to 1.06, plus any renovation reserve for older properties.
First-time buyers under 35 purchasing a home priced up to €555,000 are exempt from the 2% transfer tax under 2026 rules — a saving of approximately €9,700 on an average-priced home. This exemption applies once in a lifetime, so it is worth planning carefully. For a full breakdown of how to claim it, see our detailed guide on the transfer tax exemption for buyers under 35 in the Netherlands. Always confirm your specific eligibility with a notary before exchange.
For a full breakdown of all buying costs as a foreign buyer, our buying costs Netherlands expat guide walks through every line item in detail.
Can You Actually Afford It? A Real Expat Scenario
To fully finance an average-priced home at around €486,000 as a single buyer, you would need a gross annual income of just above €100,000. For an average-priced apartment, the solo buyer threshold drops to approximately €80,000–€85,000 — considerably more realistic for many expats.
In our experience, one of the most useful things we can do is walk through a concrete scenario. Consider a tech professional relocating from outside the EU, earning €90,000 gross per year on a permanent Dutch employment contract, looking to buy an apartment at €380,000.
- NHG eligibility: Yes — the property value is well below the €470,000 threshold, so this buyer qualifies.
- Rate with NHG at 3.6% (10-year fixed): Monthly repayment approximately €1,728.
- Rate without NHG at 4.0%: Monthly repayment approximately €1,813.
- Transfer tax saving (first-time buyer under 35): Approximately €7,600 saved on this transaction.
- Total upfront costs to budget: Approximately €19,000–€23,000 beyond the mortgage (notary, advisor, valuation, survey).
Furthermore, the mortgage interest tax deduction (hypotheekrenteaftrek) remains available and is still meaningful for higher earners, though it is being gradually phased down. Factor this into your long-term affordability modelling, ideally with an advisor who understands both Dutch tax rules and expat income structures.
It is also worth noting that employment contract type matters significantly. If you are on a temporary contract, lenders assess your application differently. Our guide on Dutch mortgage rules for temporary contracts explains exactly what documentation you will need and which lenders are more flexible.
Rent vs. Buy in the Netherlands: Running the Numbers
Free-sector rents have risen sharply across the Netherlands, fundamentally shifting the rent-versus-buy calculus for many expats. Dutch residential property prices look approximately 10%–18% above income-based fair value, yet appear only mildly elevated relative to rental yields — precisely because renting has become so expensive.
Standard expert guidance holds that buying makes financial sense if you plan to hold for at least 5–7 years. Shorter time horizons carry meaningful transaction-cost risk given buying costs of 4–6%. Key variables for the expat decision include: your employment contract type, how confident you are in staying in the Netherlands for five or more years, your access to a sufficient deposit, and what you are currently paying in rent.
For a detailed, personalised analysis of whether renting or buying makes more sense given your income and circumstances, explore our renting vs buying Netherlands expat guide, which walks through the full comparison framework we use with clients.
So: Is Now Actually a Good Time to Buy a House in the Netherlands?
The Dutch housing market is competitive but not irrational. For expats who are planning to stay five or more years, have stable employment, and have saved enough to cover the upfront costs, the medium-term case to buy a house in the Netherlands remains solid.
However, several key risks deserve honest acknowledgement:
- Mortgage rates could rise further. The Q1 2026 spike was driven by capital markets, not ECB policy. Watch both carefully.
- Overbidding pressure is real. A 3.7% average overbidding rate nationally means offer strategy and local market knowledge matter — especially in Amsterdam and Utrecht.
- Non-resident LTV caps require more upfront capital. If you do not yet have permanent Dutch residency, plan for a larger deposit.
- Time horizon is the single biggest variable. If there is genuine uncertainty about how long you will stay in the Netherlands, the 5–7 year threshold is not just a guideline — it is a financial guard rail.
The best immediate actions if you are seriously considering a purchase:
- Get a mortgage pre-assessment from a specialist expat advisor — understanding your borrowing capacity and NHG eligibility takes the guesswork out of your property search.
- Confirm your transfer tax exemption status with a notary if you are under 35 and buying your first home.
- Run a rent-versus-buy calculation based on your actual income, rent, and target purchase price.
- If your income is in a non-euro currency, understand how lenders assess it — our guide on foreign income mortgages in the Netherlands covers this in detail.
At Expat Mortgage Platform, we specialise in exactly these situations — international buyers navigating Dutch mortgage rules in a competitive, fast-moving market. We work with expats from every employment background and residency status, and we know which lenders are most flexible on the parameters that matter most to international buyers. If you are ready to take the next step, our advisors are available for a no-obligation initial conversation.
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